www.guardian.co.uk

Duncan Campbell in Los Angeles Wednesday January 22, 2003 The Guardian

Former President Jimmy Carter has proposed as a solution to the crisis in Venezuela a binding referendum on Hugo Chavez's presidency and a shortened presidential term, in exchange for his opponents ending their strike, which has now lasted 52 days.

On Friday the foreign ministers of the newly formed Friends of Venezuela group - the US, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Spain and Portugal - meet in Washington to make another attempt to break the deadlock.

The dispute brought another death on Monday: a man was shot dead and 15 others were injured when the president's supporters and opponents clashed in Charallave, 20 miles from the capital Caracas.

The former president's Carter Centre has been assisting the negotiations in Venezuela for some weeks. Mr Carter's arrival in the country earlier this week was seen as a sign that a compromise might be within reach.

He proposes a referendum in August which would end Mr Chavez's presidency if it went against him. Mr Chavez has always said that he was prepared to submit to a referendum, which is allowed by the constitution.

His opponents say the country cannot wait that long and have been pressing for a vote on February 3.

The other part of the Carter plan is to shorten the presidential term from six years to four. Mr Chavez, three years in office, has said he would accept that if the electorate and congress agreed.

Before leaving Venezuela Mr Carter was hopeful about the reception his plan has received. "My opinion is that both sides want to end an impasse that is destroying the economy," he said.

news.ft.com By Carola Hoyos in New York and Adrienne Roberts in London Published: January 22 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: January 22 2003 4:00

Refiners are facing the possibility of being forced to reduce their operations as US crude oil inventories reach historic lows.

Inventory data to be released tomorrow are expected to show that the US's commercial levels of crude oil have dropped below the 270m-barrel level at which the distribution system of pipelines and oil storage tanks begins to falter.

Even without technical difficulties, refiners faced with diminishing profit margins because of low crude oil supply and high levels of gasoline stocks are considering slowing their operations, possibly foreshadowing an expensive season for US motorists this summer.

George Beranek, manager of market analysis at PFC Energy, a Washington-based consulting firm, expects refiners to slow down operations because of the recent supply squeeze caused by the crisis in Venezuela. That has taken more than 70m barrels of crude oil out of the world market.

Citgo, which relies on Pdvsa, Venezuela's state oil company and Citgo's parent, for half its crude oil, has been hardest hit, as have refiners that process Venezuela's heavy crude oil and for whom lighter grades from other Opec countries are imperfect substitutes.

According to the International Energy Agency, the US is not the only region to suffer from falling oil inventories, with European and Pacific supplies also showing significant losses.

Although Venezuela's exports are slowly increasing and US refiners welcomed yesterday's news that oil tanker workers in western Venezuela were on the verge of going back to work, they warn that the interruption is far from over.

A breakthrough in Venezuela would be good news for George W. Bush, US president, who has come under increased pressure to release some of the 600m barrels of the country's strategic reserves to help cool oil prices.

They have recently flirted with two-year highs because of Venezuela's woes and the possibility of war with Iraq.

But the Bush administration is keen to hold on to as many of its own extra barrels as possible following Opec's decision at its meeting in Vienna earlier this month to dip into its additional production capacity, promising to increase production by up to 1.5m b/d.

John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, agrees, arguing that the US needs to "keep its powder dry".

That will be especially important if the US intends to go to war in Iraq.

Venezuela's outage has prompted US refiners to rely increasingly on Iraqi crude oil exports in the past two months, and Opec has already made clear that it would find it difficult to make up for a loss in production from both Venezuela and Iraq.

Public oil supplies - government-controlled oil at the EIA's disposal in an emergency - are about 1.28bn barrels. This includes about 595m barrels in the US strategic petroleum reserve.

The IEA, which controls strategic oil reserves for 26 industrialised countries, says public oil stocks would be enough to cope with a crisis the size of the 1978-1979 Iranian revolution. That was the largest disruption in history and, analysts say, the closest precedent to a combined Venezuelan/Iraqi outage.

www.salon.com

The economy is crumbling, the planet is heating up, war with Iraq looms. What if something REALLY goes wrong? Six nightmares for George Bush -- and everyone else.

Jan. 22, 2003  |  Two years into his presidency, on the eve of his second State of the Union address, almost exactly a year before the 2004 presidential primary season begins with the Iowa caucus, President Bush faces trouble everywhere he turns. War with Iraq seems inevitable even as crises in Venezuela and North Korea simmer, and al-Qaida remains menacing and elusive. On the domestic front, unemployment is still rising, the stock market continues to slump, budget deficits are climbing again -- and the president's only answer is a massive tax cut for the rich, while states and cities slash funds for public safety, healthcare and education. A broad spectrum of scientists agree that global warming is getting worse, but the administration insists the issue needs more study.

It's hard not to notice a disconnection between the challenges facing the U.S. and the Bush administration's response. And what if, against this already gloomy backdrop, things get worse on several fronts at once?

Salon asked six writers to look at worst-case scenarios on the domestic and international scenes. What if deficits mount and the war with Iraq is messier than expected? What if joblessness continues to rise but states' unemployment insurance funds collapse? What if al-Qaida rebuilds while the Palestinian situation festers?

Even with good luck on most of those fronts, the next two years will be as tough as the last two for the president. Without it, Bush may end up wondering why he ever wanted the job -- or could even find himself unemployed.

The Middle East The White House's reckless, one-sided policies could lead to a global catastrophe. www.salon.com By Gary Kamiya

The fiscal crisis While Bush cuts taxes for the rich, states are cutting prosthetics for the poor. www.salon.com By Joan Walsh

Iraq Chemical weapons, civil war and Arab rage could turn an invasion into a disaster. www.salon.com By Eric Boehlert

The economy If Bush's radical tax cuts are approved and spending continues to soar, the U.S. could be headed toward Japanese-style stagnation -- or worse. www.salon.com By Farhad Manjoo

The environment Bush's pro-industry policies are hastening the end of the polar bears -- and maybe the planet. www.salon.com By Katharine Mieszkowski

Reproductive rights American women take their right to an abortion for granted. They shouldn't anymore. www.salon.com By Sheerly Avni

www.dailytimes.com.pk Walden Bello

Since Seattle, the anti-corporate globalisation movement has attained critical mass globally, in the sense that its ability to mass forces at significant junctures, such as the December 1999 Seattle WTO ministerial and the July 2001 Genoa meeting of theG-8, enabled it to effect international developments and acquire a high ideological and political profile globally

The World Social Forum (WSF), to be held on January 23-28 for the third year in Porto Alegre, Brazil, has become the prime organisational expression of a surging movement against corporate-driven globalisation. Since the events of September 11, 2001, it has also acquired a strong anti-war dimension, and opposition to US plans to launch a war on Iraq is expected to dominate this year’s proceedings.

The Porto Alegre phenomenon has had its share of critics, even among progressives. One prominent American intellectual has characterised it as a gathering mainly of people who want to “reform” globalisation. Another has blasted it as a forum dominated intellectually and politically by Northern political and social movements.

These criticisms have not, however, deterred the WSF from drawing widespread adherence globally. This year, some 100,000 people are expected to show up, up from 75,000 in 2002 and this year’s meeting will be the culmination of an exciting year-long global process. A number of cities, including Buenos Aires and Caracas, have held Porto Alegre-style social forums. It was, however, the regional social forums that were the exciting innovation of the year. The European Social Forum (ESF), held in Florence, Italy, on November 6-9, 2002, drew over 40,000 people, more than three times the expected number. Even more amazing was the ESF-sponsored million-person march on November 9 against the planned US war on Iraq, which took place with not one of the incidents of mass violence that scare mongerers like Italian journalist Oriana Fallaci had predicted.

Equally impressive was the recently concluded Asian Social Forum (ASF) that took place in the historic city of Hyderabad, India, from January 2 to 7, which drew over 14,400 registered participants, mostly from the host country, though there was representation from 41 other countries. Topics included resistance to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Dalit (outcaste) rights, the threat of fundamentalist movements, women’s empowerment, food sovereignty, big dams, the Palestinian struggle, natural resource theft, and alternative economics.

Former president of India K.R. Narayanan characterised the message of the ASF as a “voice for human rights, against violence, and against imperialism, and it is only right that it has come from India because it was India that sounded the death knell for an empire on which the sun was never supposed to set.”

One of the main reasons the Porto Alegre process is gaining such momentum is precisely that is provides a venue where movements and organisations can find ways of working together despite their differences. While the usual ultra leftist groups remain defiantly outside it, the Porto Alegre process in Brazil, Europe, and India has brought to the forefront the common values and aspirations of a variety of political traditions and tendencies.

The Porto Alegre process may be the main expression of the coming together of a movement that has been wandering for a long time in the wilderness of fragmentation and competition. The pendulum, in other words, may now be swinging to the side of unity, driven by the sense that in an increasingly deadly struggle against unilateralist militarisation and aggressive corporate globalisation, movements have no choice but to hang together or they will hang separately.

There is another development that is equally significant. Since Seattle, the anti-corporate globalisation movement has attained critical mass globally, in the sense that its ability to mass forces at significant junctures, such as the December 1999 Seattle WTO ministerial and the July 2001 Genoa meeting of theG-8, enabled it to effect international developments and acquire a high ideological and political profile globally.

Yet being a global actor did not necessarily translate into being a significant actor at the national level, where traditional elites and parties continued to be in a commanding position.

Over the last year, however, the movement has achieved critical mass at the national level in a number of countries, most of them in Latin America.

Not only has espousal of neoliberal policies been a sure fire path to electoral disaster, but political parties or movements promoting anti-globalisation policies have achieved electoral power in Ecuador and Brazil, joining the Hugo Chavez government in Venezuela at the forefront of the regional anti-neoliberal struggle. Perhaps most inspiring is the case of Luis Inacio da Silva or Lula in Brazil, who won 63 per cent of the presidential vote last October. Lula is the prime figure in the Workers’ Party (PT), and as everyone knows, the Workers’ Party is the main pillar of the WSF.

Not surprisingly, many of those trekking to Porto Alegre this year will be coming with one question uppermost in their mind: What can the victory of Lula and the PT teach us about coming to power in our countries?

Many personalities of the international progressive movement are slated to come to Porto Alegre. By far the most interesting, most popular, most sought after will be Lula, the personification of the new Latin American left. And this year’s meeting will be, in many ways, a celebration of a movement that, by achieving a remarkable measure of political unity amidst diversity, has changed the face of Brazilian politics. —DT-IPS

Walden Bello is professor of sociology and public administration at the University of the Philippines and executive director of the Bangkok-based Focus on the Global South

www.dailytimes.com.pk Walden Bello

Since Seattle, the anti-corporate globalisation movement has attained critical mass globally, in the sense that its ability to mass forces at significant junctures, such as the December 1999 Seattle WTO ministerial and the July 2001 Genoa meeting of theG-8, enabled it to effect international developments and acquire a high ideological and political profile globally

The World Social Forum (WSF), to be held on January 23-28 for the third year in Porto Alegre, Brazil, has become the prime organisational expression of a surging movement against corporate-driven globalisation. Since the events of September 11, 2001, it has also acquired a strong anti-war dimension, and opposition to US plans to launch a war on Iraq is expected to dominate this year’s proceedings.

The Porto Alegre phenomenon has had its share of critics, even among progressives. One prominent American intellectual has characterised it as a gathering mainly of people who want to “reform” globalisation. Another has blasted it as a forum dominated intellectually and politically by Northern political and social movements.

These criticisms have not, however, deterred the WSF from drawing widespread adherence globally. This year, some 100,000 people are expected to show up, up from 75,000 in 2002 and this year’s meeting will be the culmination of an exciting year-long global process. A number of cities, including Buenos Aires and Caracas, have held Porto Alegre-style social forums. It was, however, the regional social forums that were the exciting innovation of the year. The European Social Forum (ESF), held in Florence, Italy, on November 6-9, 2002, drew over 40,000 people, more than three times the expected number. Even more amazing was the ESF-sponsored million-person march on November 9 against the planned US war on Iraq, which took place with not one of the incidents of mass violence that scare mongerers like Italian journalist Oriana Fallaci had predicted.

Equally impressive was the recently concluded Asian Social Forum (ASF) that took place in the historic city of Hyderabad, India, from January 2 to 7, which drew over 14,400 registered participants, mostly from the host country, though there was representation from 41 other countries. Topics included resistance to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Dalit (outcaste) rights, the threat of fundamentalist movements, women’s empowerment, food sovereignty, big dams, the Palestinian struggle, natural resource theft, and alternative economics.

Former president of India K.R. Narayanan characterised the message of the ASF as a “voice for human rights, against violence, and against imperialism, and it is only right that it has come from India because it was India that sounded the death knell for an empire on which the sun was never supposed to set.”

One of the main reasons the Porto Alegre process is gaining such momentum is precisely that is provides a venue where movements and organisations can find ways of working together despite their differences. While the usual ultra leftist groups remain defiantly outside it, the Porto Alegre process in Brazil, Europe, and India has brought to the forefront the common values and aspirations of a variety of political traditions and tendencies.

The Porto Alegre process may be the main expression of the coming together of a movement that has been wandering for a long time in the wilderness of fragmentation and competition. The pendulum, in other words, may now be swinging to the side of unity, driven by the sense that in an increasingly deadly struggle against unilateralist militarisation and aggressive corporate globalisation, movements have no choice but to hang together or they will hang separately.

There is another development that is equally significant. Since Seattle, the anti-corporate globalisation movement has attained critical mass globally, in the sense that its ability to mass forces at significant junctures, such as the December 1999 Seattle WTO ministerial and the July 2001 Genoa meeting of theG-8, enabled it to effect international developments and acquire a high ideological and political profile globally.

Yet being a global actor did not necessarily translate into being a significant actor at the national level, where traditional elites and parties continued to be in a commanding position.

Over the last year, however, the movement has achieved critical mass at the national level in a number of countries, most of them in Latin America.

Not only has espousal of neoliberal policies been a sure fire path to electoral disaster, but political parties or movements promoting anti-globalisation policies have achieved electoral power in Ecuador and Brazil, joining the Hugo Chavez government in Venezuela at the forefront of the regional anti-neoliberal struggle. Perhaps most inspiring is the case of Luis Inacio da Silva or Lula in Brazil, who won 63 per cent of the presidential vote last October. Lula is the prime figure in the Workers’ Party (PT), and as everyone knows, the Workers’ Party is the main pillar of the WSF.

Not surprisingly, many of those trekking to Porto Alegre this year will be coming with one question uppermost in their mind: What can the victory of Lula and the PT teach us about coming to power in our countries?

Many personalities of the international progressive movement are slated to come to Porto Alegre. By far the most interesting, most popular, most sought after will be Lula, the personification of the new Latin American left. And this year’s meeting will be, in many ways, a celebration of a movement that, by achieving a remarkable measure of political unity amidst diversity, has changed the face of Brazilian politics. —DT-IPS

Walden Bello is professor of sociology and public administration at the University of the Philippines and executive director of the Bangkok-based Focus on the Global South