www.morningjournalnews.com Monday January 20, 2003 By RYAN GILLIS, Journal Staff Writer

1/20/2003SALEM - While the local economy appears to have entered this latest recession earlier and has been in recession longer than national averages, better days may soon be on the horizon, economically speaking.

According to George Zeller, who spoke Friday at the Salem Area Chamber of Commerce's annual economic forecast luncheon, there is a 70 percent chance Columbiana County's recessional economy will improve before the end of 2003.

A recession is defined as two consecutive fiscal quarters in which the country's gross domestic product, the sum total of all economic activity nation wide, declines. The national economy saw negative GDP during the first three quarters of 2001.

That decline stopped at the fourth quarter, he said, and all four quarters of 2002 saw positive GDP, meaning the national economic outlook is improving. Unfortunately, that growth is much slower to arrive in Columbiana County and the Mahoning Valley than in the rest of the country, he said.

"I don't think its a secret to most of you that this is not the best economic period we've ever had," Zeller told his audience, and his statistics suggested Columbiana County and surrounding areas have yet to see the end of this low economy.

For example, over the past year, Columbiana County alone has lost over 1,000 jobs, and Mahoning and Trumbull counties have lost an additional 3,000 jobs, meaning the total area has lost almost 4 percent of its employment.

Statistics also show the total aggregate earnings from all jobs in Columbiana County still equal about $200 million each quarter, Zeller said, but that figure is 3 percent less than last year, a loss of about $6 million.

"When there's $6 million less in paychecks circulating in people's pockets, that's a problem," he said. "That's a problem certainly for the household where the paychecks are lost, and it's a problem for the business community, too. There's that much less money circulating."

Locally, the recession has been in place since the third quarter of 2000, according to Zeller's figures, and the entire state was in recession throughout 2002. Job losses are also much larger when viewed over a two-year period, about 7 percent of all jobs in the Youngstown metro area were lost, he said.

Zeller's forecast was not all gloom and doom, however. The number of people applying for unemployment in Columbiana County has been decreasing for the past six weeks, which the economist called "a positive sign."

Based on that fact and national trends, Zeller predicted there was a 70 percent chance the county's recession will end before 2003 is over.

The prediction leaves a 30 percent chance the local economy will not improve this year. Zeller said the possible war with Iraq, political instability in Venezuela and changing interest rates are all "wild cards" in the equation which could keep the economy stagnant.

Zeller is a senior researcher at the Council for Economic Opportunities in Greater Cleveland, which coordinates anti-poverty efforts in Cuyahoga County. He has also worked as a sociology professor at both Ashland and Wittenberg universities and served on several statistical committees and task forces at the national, state and local levels.

He is a 1967 graduate of Salem High School.

rgillis@mojonews.com

allafrica.com Daily Trust (Abuja) OPINION January 20, 2003 Posted to the web January 20, 2003 Salisu Na'inna Dambatta

The general outcry by Nigerians over the state of roads in the country has accentuated the timeliness of the ongoing efforts towards ending the 100-year jinx on the exploitation of the large bitumen deposits in the country which has an enormous economic potential for Nigeria. Bitumen is the major component necessary for the construction of conventional roads in the world.

Although, preliminary exploratory activities on tar sand, the other name for bitumen, started in 1900, 14 clear years before the amalgamation of Nigeria, it is only in the last couple of years that the tempo of federal commitment that could lead to the actual exploitation of the mineral began. The driving force behind this, needless to say, is President Olusegun Obasanjo. Nigeria Competition Bill Your Comments Requested

"Any Nigerian government that successfully lays the foundation for the exploitation of this huge mineral resource would have made history because the Nigerian economy would substantially be diversified from conventional petroleum in an irrevocably strategic way", says a document advocating the exploitation of the mineral.

That foundation has been laid as the actual exploitation of Nigerian bitumen is set to be actualised in the next six months, raising hopes that Nigeria will soon be enjoying the fruits of the 47.2 billion barrels known or confirmed deposit of bitumen. This is important as the benefits are many.

The popular part of bitumen is asphalt which, as stated earlier, is used in road construction, but fact is that it has other petrochemical properties which are more valuable than most people think.

"Other strategic products include synthetic crude oil that can be refined from bitumen to produce motor fuel, fuel oil, grease, wax, pith and low cost petroleum products such as naphtha", says a document prepared by Dr. Femi Dada, former director of the bitumen project. Additional by-products of bitumen are nickel, vanadium, phenols for the pharmaceutical industry, sulphuric acid and sulphur, all of which Nigeria now spends huge amounts of foreign exchange to import.

The importance of bitumen has been recognised by other bitumen-rich countries, especially Venezuela and Canada who have developed techno-logies appropriate to the grades of their bitumen deposits. They are earning foreign exchange from it and its by-products and at the same time using part of it for their domestic needs.

In fact, Dr. Femi Dada argued in his paper that, "the local market alone in Nigeria is estimated at about N20 billion annually", and went further to observe that, "the Nigerian economy loses about N133 billion of five percent of GDP annually as a result of lack of bitumen".

Indeed, given the nature and value of bitumen, it is imperative to appreciate the goodness in the speedy manner in which the federal government created the enabling environment for its exploitation. The benefits it will bring are numerous. The National Assembly should assiduously pass the bill before it on the establishment of the Bitumen Development Agency. The federal ministry of solid minerals development should be praised for the determination shown by its management in ensuring that at last Nigeria's bitumen dream is now almost translated into beneficial reality.

Many Nigerians who are following the progress of the march towards the exploitation of bitumen acknowledge the inauguration of a presidential committee on the implementation of the bitumen project by the government of Ibrahim Babangida in 1989. Its revival by the Obasanjo administration is a welcome exercise in continuity and the increased tempo towards achieving the objective in the last two years is a genuine source of happiness to those who appreciate the implication of it all.

For availability of Nigerian bitumen to feed the huge internal demand for the commodity for road and other construction will mean more tarred roads for Nigerians. There are the added benefits of saving foreign exchange and earning more from its export.

The development of skilled manpower and the acquisition of high-tech equipment will all have beneficial impact on Nigeria. It is desirable and realisable with the current level of commitment on the part of all stakeholders.

It is argued elsewhere that Nigerian bitumen could help Africa realise the unfulfilled dream of the defunct Organisation of African Unity of developing the Trans-African high-way, the system of road networks planned to traverse the continent, lining up West, North, East, Central, Southern Africa and the Horn of Africa together. This will boost African integration, a constitutional objective of Nigeria which is being vigorously pursued by the Obasanjo administration.

Salisu is an assistant director of information at the presidency.

sg.biz.yahoo.com Monday January 20, 10:43 PM

CARACAS (Dow Jones)--The planned restart over the weekend of the 335,000 barrels per day La Isla refinery at Curacao has failed due to technical glitches, a refinery spokeswoman said Monday.

"We have tried to restart several units, but technical problems have forced us to delay plans to bring the plant back on line," the spokeswoman said. She added that due to the technical problems certain parts of the units have to be flown in from abroad. She couldn't say by how long the planned startup has been delayed. The plant was scheduled to be back at full capacity within two weeks.

An attempt to restart a crude distillation unit that didn't suffer from technical problems will be made later Monday, she said.

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AdultsStorage facilities have been drawn down sufficiently enough to restart the processing of around 200,000 b/d of gasoline. The plant was forced to shut down after an oil strike hit production and exports of Venezuela's state-owned oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela SA (E.PVZ) and storage facilities were full.

The production and exporting of around 200,000 b/d of gasoline are crucial for the gasoline supply in Venezuela, hit by an oil strike which entered its eighth week Monday. The La Isla refinery is leased by PdVSA.

The Venezuelan government still depends mostly on gasoline imports to fight a gasoline shortage. Only its 200,000 b/d Puerto La Cruz refinery is functioning. It's producing around 75,000 b/d.

By Fred Pals, Dow Jones Newswires; 58212-5641339; fred.palsdowjones.com;

www.abs-cbnnews.com

New players Total and Eastern Petroleum Corp. Monday rolled back the 40-centavo per liter increase implemented on their diesel prices last week after the country’s major oil firms decided to adjust the prices of their gasoline products by 60 centavos per liter.

“To maintain market competitiveness, Total will reduce its prices by 40 centavos per liter for diesel and kerosene effective 2 p.m.,” a company official said Monday.

Eastern Petroleum Corp. president Fer Martinez, meanwhile, said the supposed increase in diesel could still be implemented “depending on the move of its competitors.”

Total raised its gasoline prices by 60 centavos a liter on Friday while Eastern implemented its price adjustment by the same amount on Saturday.

The rollback in diesel and kerosene was announced Monday.

The price reduction came after market leader Petron Corp. increased only its gasoline prices Monday. Pilipinas Shell also implemented the same price adjustment on Satuday. Both firms said the increase was necessary to recover the Clean Air Act (CAA) implementation costs they have incurred.

“The increase reflects additional cost for CAA compliance. There will be no movement on diesel and kerosene,” Petron and Shell said separately.

Monitoring by the Department of Energy showed that uncertainty in Iraq and the ongoing strike of petroleum workers in Venezuela have pushed up market prices both world crude oil and refined petroleum products. L. Lectura

Please send your comments or feedback to newsfeedback@abs-cbn.com

abcnews.go.com — By Richard Mably

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked higher on Monday as top U.N. weapons inspectors spent a second day in Iraq and the United States said time was running out for Baghdad to prove compliance with disarmament resolutions.

London Brent blend in early trade added 19 cents to $30.73 a barrel. U.S. crude, closed on Monday for Martin Luther King day, set a new two-year high of $34 a barrel on Friday.

Washington on Sunday issued one of its clearest warnings yet to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein that non-cooperation with U.N. inspectors could be deemed a trigger for a war in the absence of a "smoking gun," or hard evidence of weapons of mass destruction -- and that a decision could be just weeks away.

"The test is, is Saddam Hussein cooperating?" said Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on weekend television. "He's not doing that."

Rumsfeld, presiding over a huge U.S. military build-up of warplanes, ships and tens of thousands of troops in the oil-rich Gulf region, said a final conclusion on Iraqi cooperation could be made "in a matter of weeks, not in months or years."

"Of course Rumsfeld is a hawk, but if the test of compliance is cooperation then clearly Saddam is not cooperating," said oil broker Nauman Barakat of Fimat International Banque.

Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix and Mohammad ElBaradei, head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, say there are big gaps in Baghdad's arms declarations, and are demanding quick answers before they report to the Security Council on January 27 on Iraqi compliance.

"I think (the Iraqis) have said that there are still certain areas they are ready to provide more information. I think that in other areas they said they are ready to reconsider their position," ElBaradei said in an interview with Reuters.

"What we tried to do today at this meeting is to impress on the Iraqi authorities that the time is running out."

U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, on U.S. weekend television, said: "Clearly the 27th is an important date ... (It) probably marks the start of a last phase of determining whether the Iraqis have fully complied."

EXILE

From Beirut, a special envoy of Saddam's dismissed talk of the Iraqi president going into exile.

"As we have said before, we reiterate now that this is merely nonsense and one of the tactics of psychological warfare," said Ali Hassan al-Majeed, a member of the Revolutionary Command Council and a cousin of Saddam.

Rumsfeld said he hoped Saddam would choose exile, but he was unsure of the prospect. "There is at least a possibility," he said. "His neighboring states are in a process now of trying to avoid a conflict there by having him leave the country."

Saddam remained defiant.

"After putting our faith in God, victory is absolutely assured. We don't see it on the horizon, rather it is in our grasp and inside our chests," he told a group of army officers.

Oil traders said Venezuela's general strike, now in its seventh week, also was keeping the heat under crude prices.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Sunday he was "winning the oil war," restoring crude flows and restarting ports and refineries. He said oil output which fell to 500,000 barrels per day this month was now at 1.2 million bpd, versus three million bpd normally.

Striking oil workers said that production was only half the volume given by Chavez.

Leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia is moving to fill the gap by raising output by between 500,000 and one million barrels a day, industry sources said.

Riyadh is opening up the taps and by February could be pumping nine million bpd, the industry sources said on Sunday from eight million recently.

"The Saudis are cranking it up. The message is that there is a big increase on the way," said one senior Western oil executive.