www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.19.03, 2:28 PM ET

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, fighting a 7-week-old opposition strike, said the OPEC member country could restore oil output to 2 million barrels per day by the end of January.

The government estimates current output near 1 million bpd, while striking workers peg it at 650,000 bpd.

"We could reach 2 million barrels per day before the end of the month," Chavez said in his weekly television program.

abcnews.go.com — By Pascal Fletcher

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Sunday named a new interior minister and head of the army, placing loyal generals in key posts as he fought to beat a 49-day-old opposition strike that has strangled vital oil exports.

Chavez, who has purged the armed forces of opponents since surviving a short-lived coup in April, said his government would use "everything we've got" to try to defeat the strike launched by opposition leaders, who are pressing him to resign and hold early elections.

"Those who are trying to get rid of me by force, through a military coup or an economic coup, or by creating chaos, are not going to succeed," Chavez declared during his weekly "Hello President" television and radio show.

He vowed that his government would use military raids against striking private businesses if necessary.

The strike, which enters its eighth week Monday, has crippled oil production and shipments in the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter. It has also caused serious shortages of gasoline, cooking gas and some food items, sparking looting in some provincial towns and villages.

Chavez named Gen. Lucas Rincon, a former defense minister and ex-armed forces chief, as interior minister and Gen. Jorge Garcia Carneiro, as the new chief of the army -- the most powerful branch of the armed forces -- replacing Gen. Julio Garcia, who had held the post since the April coup.

Both generals are close allies of Chavez, himself a former army officer, who has increasingly used the armed forces to counter the strike.

OUTRAGE AT RAIDS

In a move that drew howls of outrage from Chavez's foes, National Guard troops on Friday broke into two private drinks manufacturing facilities. One was a local bottling affiliate of Coca-Cola Co. and the other a storage plant belonging to Venezuela's biggest private firm, Empresas Polar.

The soldiers seized truckloads of soft drinks, water and beer and took them away for distribution to the population.

Chavez said some private manufacturers were breaking the law by hoarding products to support the strike and vowed he would not hesitate to act against them.

Opposition leaders said the military raids were an unlawful attack against private property and only confirmed accusations that Chavez was trying to introduce Cuba-style communism.

The president blasted his opponents as "oligarchic elites" opposed to his rule, which he says is aimed at helping Venezuela's poor majority and promoting social equality.

Chavez has also sent troops to take over and restart strike-hit state oil fields, refineries and export ports.

But Venezuela's oil production, refining and exports are still well below normal levels. The strike has jolted world oil markets and cut off exports to the United States, which normally imports over 13 percent of its oil from Venezuela.

Condemning opposition strike leaders as "terrorists and coup mongers," Chavez has refused to negotiate with them. He said on Saturday his government was considering withdrawing from ongoing talks with the opposition brokered by Organization of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria.

Chevez's threats have raised doubts about the future of the peace negotiations, which have been going on for two months without any sign of agreement on the key issue of elections.

www.ctv.ca Associated Press

CARACAS — President Hugo Chavez on Sunday threatened to order more raids on striking private food producers and warned that the government may abandon negotiations with opponents trying to force him from office.

Meanwhile, thousands of Venezuelans with roots in Italy, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, Portugal and other countries marched for peace, waving the flags of their homelands and Venezuela. Some carried signs that read "liberty'' and "union'' in six languages.

"I've never seen the country so divided,'' said Jose Lopes, 60, a bookstore owner who immigrated to Venezuela from Portugal as a teenager. "We don't want to leave, but if Chavez doesn't leave it's a possibility.''

Opponents accuse the 48-year-old president of running roughshod over democratic institutions and wrecking the economy with leftist policies.

A combination of opposition parties, business leaders and labour unions called for a general strike on Dec. 2 to demand Chavez accept the results of a non-binding referendum on his rule.

Venezuela's National Elections Council scheduled the vote for Feb. 2 after accepting an opposition petition, but Chavez's supporters have challenged the referendum in court. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the issue soon.

Chavez, whose six-year term ends in 2007, insists his foes must wait until August -- or halfway through his six-year term -- when a recall referendum is permitted by the constitution.

The strike has brought Venezuela's economy to a standstill, causing shortages of gasoline, food and drink, including bottled water, milk, soft drinks and flour.

Local producers insist they are still making basic foodstuffs but that fuel shortages and lack of security for their transport workers have hampered deliveries.

"Some businessmen have reflected and have started to open their factories,'' Chavez said during his weekly television and radio show. "Those who refuse, who resist, well, be sure that today, tomorrow or after, we will raid your warehouses and stockpiles.''

On Friday, National Guard soldiers seized water and soft drinks from two bottling plants. One was an affiliate of Coca-Cola, the other belonged to Venezuela's largest food and drinks producer, Empresas Polar.

Vice-President Jose Vicente Rangel on Sunday rejected U.S. Ambassador Charles Shapiro's criticism of the raids, which he said affected U.S. interests in Venezuela. Shapiro also questioned their legality.

"Ambassador, with all due respect, you are not an authority in this country,'' Rangel said Sunday while speaking to supporters in Venezuela's Margarita Island.

Bilateral "relations have to be on an equal plain of mutual respect. This is not a protectorate, it is not a colony,'' Rangel said.

Chavez also warned the government would walk away from negotiations sponsored by the Organization of American States if the opposition continued seeking his ouster through what he calls unconstitutional means.

"We are carefully evaluating the possibility that our representatives will leave the (negotiating) table,'' he said. "We don't talk with terrorists. We are willing to talk with any Venezuelan within the framework of the constitution.''

The talks, which began in November, have yielded few results. Six countries -- Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the United States -- have begun an initiative called "Friends of Venezuela'' to support the negotiations.

The strike is strongest in Venezuela's oil industry, previously the world's fifth-largest exporter.

Oil production has dwindled to 800,000 barrels a day, compared with the three million barrels a day the country usually produces, according to the government. Strike leaders put the figure at 400,000 barrels a day.

Chavez, who has fired more than 1,000 strikers from the state oil monopoly, said Sunday that production could be restored to two million barrels a day by the end of the month.

But Chavez acknowledged that gasoline shortages have increased. He blamed the difficulties on "sabotage'' by strikers and delayed gasoline imports. He also promised to reinforce troop presence at oil installations and said 60 gasoline trucks were on their way to Caracas, the capital, on Sunday.

"Keep rationing gasoline,'' Chavez urged listeners.

Besides the factory raid, troops have seized striking oil tankers and kept strikers out of oil installations. Five people have died in politically related violence since the strike began.

Also Sunday, Chavez appointed retired Gen. Lucas Rincon as his interior minister, replacing Diosdado Cabello, who was named infrastructure minister last week. Rincon's appointment comes despite his role in April's failed coup and his later resignation as defence minister.

Rincon announced to the world that Chavez resigned after 19 people died during an opposition march on the presidential palace. Loyal soldiers restored Chavez to power two days later after an interim government dissolved the constitution.

Chavez also appointed Gen. Jorge Garcia Carneiro as commander of Venezuela's army, replacing Gen. Julio Garcia Montoya.

www.dailytimesonline.com By John Yaukey Gannett News Service

WASHINGTON -- George W. Bush never envisioned this, nor did he want it: the United States policing the world for weapons of mass destruction while nation building in the bombed-out husk of a country even Russia had abandoned.

Bush campaigned in 2000 practically as an isolationist.

And yet now -- halfway through his first term -- he finds himself propping up what is left of Afghanistan, talking about bringing democracy to the Arab world by ousting Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and, more recently, facing off against North Korea in an effort to stabilize Asia.

This is a radical leap for someone who couldn't name the leader of Pakistan during his presidential campaign and had rarely ventured beyond the lower 48 states as a young man.

The metamorphosis of Bush's foreign policy philosophy has been driven in part by the necessities of combating terrorism. Indeed, Bush has not been shy about letting Americans know how profoundly he was changed by the events of Sept. 11, almost coming to tears before TV cameras in the Oval Office shortly after the attacks.

The 9-11 imperative

As horrible as Sept. 11 was, it gave the Bush presidency a powerful new motivation -- to prevent anything like it from happening again -- and a new energy.

"I remember saying I hope the first emergency doesn't come too quickly," said Calvin Jillson, chairman of the political science department at Southern Methodist University in Texas. "But within the first 48 hours of September 11th, he was on top of that in a way that resonated with the broad majority of Americans. That has buoyed him from that point to this."

Other early successes have also emboldened Bush: Al-Qaida is on the run, more than 90 nations have signed on to the U.S.-led war on terrorism, the United Nations Security Council has passed a tough resolution commanding Iraq to disarm and NATO has been retooled to fight terrorism.

Bush's influence has been felt even among hostile states such as Syria, which surprised much of the international community by voting for the Security Council resolution against its neighbor Iraq.

But potentially disastrous challenges loom from the Korean peninsula to the Middle East. Meanwhile, antipathy for American policy is growing abroad.

"I think he has spread himself very thin," said Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D. "We are still in Afghanistan. He is about to fight a war with Iraq, he is dealing with the threat of nuclear weapons in North Korea, and he is trying to deal with threats here and abroad -- all simultaneously."

Some analysts worry that Bush's success might not hold up well if the world dissolves into a series of gray-area conflicts where the president can't easily wield the moral authority he gathered from the Sept. 11 attacks. Even Britain, Bush's staunchest ally against Iraq, has started to voice concern about attacking without solid evidence that Saddam has weapons of mass destruction.

"After September 11, some leading people in the administration made Iraq a very high priority," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. "Now we're in this murky area with no smoking guns. It remains to be seen what happens in the next act."

As Bush moves into the next two years, the stakes for his foreign policy could hardly be higher. He must confront the twin threats of terrorism and nations with weapons of mass destruction -- and the possible union of the two.

Bold style, new challenges

Bush has never had much use for the timid hedgings of pin-striped diplomats. He tends to see the world in stark tones, eschewing any moral relativism.

He characterized his reaction to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il as "visceral," telling author Bob Woodward, "I loathe the man." And Bush has never pulled any punches with Saddam.

But his moral absolutism has not always played well as a foreign policy.

In his 2002 State of the Union speech, he named his now infamous "axis of evil" -- Iraq, Iran and North Korea -- a move some view as a victory of zealous speechwriting over practical policy.

"Those words took people aback," said Leon Sigal, author of "Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea." "Up until the speech was delivered, a lot of policy people were trying to get them removed. And afterward, you didn't hear (Bush) use them much, if ever, again."

Still, later in a graduation speech at West Point, Bush took his high-minded vow to protect Americans from terrorism one step further, arguing for a doctrine of pre-emption against potential threats.

Once again, the president raised more than just eyebrows.

The hawkish former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger contended that the concept was "revolutionary," challenging the centuries-old system of international sovereignty.

Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., called it naked imperialism.

But the Bush administration argued that Sept. 11 was absolutely a watershed, calling for a new approach to heading off threats before they materialize.

Historically, the United States shifted between unilateralism and cooperation throughout the 20th century. It fought communism in Vietnam almost alone. In Korea, during the 1950s, it worked with the United Nations. Pre-emption, however, is a new tactic.

The twin realities of the new age -- unchallenged American might and cataclysmic terrorism -- prompted Washington's neophyte world player to undertake the most comprehensive reassessment of American foreign policy since the dawn of the Cold War.

Rough ride ahead

In declaring his pre-emptive war on terror, Bush told Americans to brace for a rough ride.

He'll need to fasten his own seat belt as well. Thus far, all his victories remain tenuous.

Afghanistan is still in critical condition. Merely dodging assassination will be a major test for its democratic leader Hamid Karzai while bandits and warlords once again rule the countryside.

While Bush secured a tough Security Council resolution against Saddam, support among even Americans for a war against Iraq is waning as weapons inspectors continue to scour the California-size country without much to show for it.

For all Bush's determination to hunt down "every last one" of the Sept. 11 terrorists, many are still at large. Another attack linked to Osama bin Laden could destroy public confidence in the administration.

And then there are the wildcards.

The raging Israeli-Palestinian conflict could anger the Arab world and turn a war against Iraq into a wider clash between Muslims and the West.

Political turmoil in Venezuela, a leading supplier of U.S. oil, could exacerbate the oil shortages brought on by a war with Iraq and undermine the already shaky economy.

The second half of Bush's term may well answer the question posed by the first: Does he really know what he's doing abroad?

Originally published Sunday, January 19, 2003

www.islam-online.net

"The inspection is not a prelude to war, it is an alternative to war and that is what we want to achieve," Blix BAGHDAD, January 19 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) – As Washington intensified efforts with U.N. Security Council member states to secure a second resolution authorizing war on Iraq, in case one is needed, chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix Sunday, January 19, returned to Baghdad for critical talks.

Upon arrival in Baghdad, Blix said that war against Iraq was not inevitable but called for active Iraqi cooperation, reported Agence France-Presse (AFP).

"We have been to a number of capitals: Brussels, Paris, London. We do not think war is inevitable," Blix told reporters.

"We think that the inspection process is a peaceful alternative. It requires comprehensive inspections and a very active Iraqi cooperation," he said after flying in with U.N. nuclear watchdog head Mohammad El-Baradei.

"The inspection is not a prelude to war, it is an alternative to war and that is what we want to achieve. We are not here to humiliate or to insult, we are here to inspect in the best correct manner," Blix said.

El-Baradei stressed the timing of the trip was "very important ... critical".

"We would like to see the inspections work and for that to work we need a lot of additional information, and we are going to impress on our Iraqi counterparts the importance of providing as much information, as much documents, as much physical evidence as possible.

"This will help greatly before we submit our report next week to the Security Council," on January 27, he said, asserting that "it's in Iraq's interest to present us evidence so that we can present positive reports."

"The importance of the visit is that it is a direct eye-to-eye contact. A possibility to discuss with the Iraqis what they need to be doing, particularly in advance of the 27th of January," IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming elaborated.

"We need to see a demonstration of a change of course on the side of the Iraqis, a shift from passive cooperation to active cooperation. This message will be delivered directly to them today," she said.

Blix, head of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, and El-Baradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, were to have a series of meetings with Iraqi officials before leaving Monday afternoon.

U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki said they would meet Foreign Ministry officials in charge of disarmament issues at 1300 GMT.

 Powell Intensifies Meetings Ahead of Security Council Meeting     In New York, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell was to meet Sunday, January 20, with his Chinese, French and Mexican counterparts ahead of a U.N. Security Council ministerial meeting. Powell also planned to hold private talks before and after Monday's special council meeting with the foreign ministers of Bulgaria, Germany, Russia and Spain, whose countries hold seats in the Security Council.

The topics of the private discussions are likely to vary depending on the minister, but Iraq and North Korea are expected to dominate the agenda.

With French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, Powell is expected to discuss Ivory Coast peace efforts.

With new Mexican Foreign Secretary Luis Ernesto Derbez, Powell will also discuss mediating the current political crisis in Venezuela. Political observers, however, believe that Powell's top priority is garnering support for a second resolution on Iraq, should Washington deem the situation too risky to go it alone against Baghdad.

Massive global anti-war demonstrations may force the Bush administration to reconsider its plans to strike, even without a clear go-ahead from the world community, according to analysts.