Dow edges higher on AOL shake out
cbs.marketwatch.com
AOL Time Warner rises, Dell tumbles; crude prices ease
By Allen Wan, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 3:47 PM ET Jan. 13, 2003
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - While blue chips were barely afloat by late afternoon trade Monday and Dell Computer's losses threatened to drag down the Nasdaq, AOL Time Warner shares surged after chairman Steve Case resigned from the media and entertainment giant.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJ: news, chart, profile) rose 23 points, or 0.3 percent, to 8,809. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) was flat at 1,447. The S&P 500 Index (SPX: news, chart, profile) was also steady at 927.
Trading remained volatile. Good news in the form of falling oil prices, changes at AOL Time Warner and optimism over fourth-quarter earnings were offset by broker downgrades of Dell Computer, Johnson & Johnson and Duke Energy. Watch latest market update.
"It's basically a tug of war between the bears and the bulls," said Peter Cardillo, chief investment strategist at Global Partner Securities. "We have a market that wants to go higher but can't because of the geopolitical concerns and technical resistance."
The Dow was being supported by gains of around 2 percent or better from General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile), Home Depot (HD: news, chart, profile), Boeing (BA: news, chart, profile), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile) and Disney (DIS: news, chart, profile). But Johnson & Johnson slipped 1.8 percent and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: news, chart, profile) eased 1.2 percent.
Shares of AOL Time Warner (AOL: news, chart, profile) surged 2.6 percent after Steve Case resigned as chairman Sunday. He'll remain a company director, with responsibility for corporate strategy. Case was a mastermind of the disastrous America Online merger with Time Warner two years ago. AOL stock rose 38 cents to $15.26. Read full story.
David Joyce, senior equity analyst at Guzman & Company, said Case's resignation was "all in all a positive step," but noted that AOL Time Warner still has many "overhanging issues." Listen to Joyce.
With Case stepping down, some analysts say it's possible the company will take quick, decisive action to solve the 2-year-old problem with its troubled America Online division. Read due diligence.
It was a busy day in the AOL Time Warner empire as the chairman of cable news unit CNN Walter Isaacson also resigned to take a job with the Aspen Institute. Read full story.
Donald Selkin, director of equity research at Joseph Stevens, blamed some of the market gloominess on broker downgrades of Dell and Johnson & Johnson. Weak London markets were also a factor, as was profit taking after heady gains so far this year.
Shares of No.1 PC maker Dell Computer (DELL: news, chart, profile) fell 4.8 percent to $25.85 after J.P. Morgan Securities cut the stock to neutral from overweight. "We believe the temporary budget flush in the hardware sector benefited the PC segment less than other areas of the computer hardware sector," J.P. Morgan Securities told clients Monday.
"Dell's share gains should continue in this period, but with an increasingly aggressive industry pricing environment, these share gains could come at a higher cost," the broker said. It cut estimates for the year ending January 2004 to earnings of 95 cents a share, from an earlier forecast of 98 cents, and lowered its revenue estimates to $40.4 billion, from $41.6 billion."
Selkin, who noted unusual activity in Dell stock ahead of the expiration of options, said he expects the markets to gain by the end of the day, led by a rebound in Microsoft, which reports earnings on Thursday.
Tech watch
Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) gained 0.7 percent ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter earnings Tuesday. Microsoft (MSFT: news, chart, profile), another key tech stock reporting later this week, edged up 0.9 percent. Microsoft and lawyers for the lead plaintiffs in 27 antitrust suits against the software maker in California said late Friday they had reached a $1.1 billion settlement. Read tech earnings outlook and hardware report.
Intel's release will be watched for forecasts of a chip sector rebound; there's speculation things improved in the second half of 2003. The chip giant is expected to report earnings of 14 cents per share.
Wall Street forecasters are bullish about the outlook for corporate earnings in the fourth quarter, but their views get less rosy the further out they gaze into their crystal balls. Read earnings preview and Earnings Watch.
Motorola (MOT: news, chart, profile) tumbled 5.7 percent after the company said it plans to make a tender offer to acquire all the outstanding stock of Next Level Communications (NXTV: news, chart, profile) it doesn't already own. Next Level soared 30 percent.
Cisco Systems (CSCO: news, chart, profile) edged up 0.5 percent to a seven-month high, and was the Nasdaq exchange's most-active issue.
Shares of Nortel Networks (NT: news, chart, profile) ran up 7.7 percent to $2.53 on NYSE leading volume of 50 million shares. The stock, which is now up 57 percent since the end of 2002, reached an eight-month high of $2.70 earlier in the session.
Meanwhile, oil prices eased after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed Sunday to increase crude production by 1.5 million barrels a day, or 6.5 percent, to 24.5 million in a bid to lower prices and offset shortages resulting from a strike in Venezuela. February crude traded at $31.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 26 cents. Read full story.
Oil service and utility stocks were the biggest losers, with Transocean (RIG: news, chart, profile) losing 1.6 percent and Haliburton (HAL: news, chart, profile) easing 1.7 percent.
Shares of Duke Energy (DUK: news, chart, profile) plunged 12.9 percent after analyst Steven Fleishman at Merrill Lynch downgraded the company to "sell" from "neutral" following its warning that 2002 and 2003 earnings would fall short of expectations.
In other corporate news, Georgia-Pacific Corp. (GP: news, chart, profile) warned that its fourth-quarter profit would come in well below Wall Street's consensus forecast, sending shares down as much as 13 percent. Shares of Georgia-Pacific traded at last check down 8.0 percent. Read full story.
Analyst Girish Tyagi at Thomas Weisel Monday cut his rating on Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ: news, chart, profile) stock from "buy" to "attractive," citing concern about its pharmaceutical business. Tyagi said J&J's key anti-anemia treatment, Procrit, faces a strong challenge from a competing therapy from Amgen (AMGN: news, chart, profile). Johnson & Johnson stock fell 1.2 percent, while Amgen rose 1.4 percent.
Raytheon (RTN: news, chart, profile) plunged 5.2 percent after the defense company acknowledged in a statement that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into revenue recognition practices from 1997 to 2001 at its Raytheon aircraft unit. Read full story.
In other key exchanges, the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX: news, chart, profile) fell 0.1 percent to 1,086, while the Russell 2000 ($RUT: news, chart, profile) of small-cap stocks was flat at 396.
Volume hit 714 million on the NYSE and 948 million on the Nasdaq. Decliners beat advancers by a ratio of 16 to 14 on the Big Board and 15 to 13 on the Nasdaq.
Funds investing primarily in U.S. stock witnessed outflows of $1.7 billion in the first trading week of the year, Trim Tabs said. U.S. equity funds received $2.4 billion of new cash between Jan. 3-9, Dbut that was more than offset by $4.1 billion in outflows on Jan. 2, the first trading day of the year.
Treasurys were slightly on the defensive as stock averages got a boost from the shake-up at AOL Time Warner. Checking the latest prices, a benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 7/32 at 98 23/32 to yield 4.16 percent, up from 4.13 percent in the previous session. A 30-year bond was off 5/32 at 104 24/32 to yield 5.06 percent, up from 5.05 percent. Read bond report.
The dollar gained 0.2 percent versus the euro to $1.0556, after seeing a low of about $1.0590 -- matching the multi-year low it hit on Friday -- earlier in the session. Dollar strength was by no means widespread, however, as the buck shed 0.2 percent against the yen to 118.92.
North Korea
Sam Stovall, senior investment strategist at Standard and Poor's, said investors were growing more optimistic about resolution to Iraq and North Korea, and recommended stocks that could benefit most from an economic recovery. Listen to Stovall.
A U.S. envoy said that the United States is willing to consider energy aid for North Korea if Pyongyang ends nuclear weapons development.
Hopeful signs of a breakthrough in North Korea sent the Seoul stock market up 3 percent on Monday. In Europe, London's FTSE ended slightly lower, while Germany's DAX index rose after a key retailer assured on 2003 growth. Check out global markets page.
Earnings ahead
Apple (AAPL: news, chart, profile), Yahoo (YHOO: news, chart, profile), Continental Airlines (CAL: news, chart, profile), Bank of America (BAC: news, chart, profile), Fannie Mae (FNM: news, chart, profile), GM Hughes (GMH: news, chart, profile) and Genentech (DNA: news, chart, profile) are expected to report on Wednesday.
The earnings flood hits tidal wave proportions on Thursday, with updates expected from BankOne (ONE: news, chart, profile), Delta (DAL: news, chart, profile), EBay (EBAY: news, chart, profile), General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile), FleetBoston (FBF: news, chart, profile), Sears (S: news, chart, profile), Sun Microsystems (SUNW: news, chart, profile), United Technologies (UTX: news, chart, profile) and Wachovia (WB: news, chart, profile), among others.
A full plate of economic data awaits investors, starting with retail sales and import/export prices on Tuesday. Estimates for next week's key retail sales report are scattered.
Some economists think only late-year car incentives propped up a December reading otherwise dogged by a lackluster holiday. Others believe satisfactory -- if short of stellar -- December results will make for an encouraging final quarter. Read economic preview.
The Fed's Beige Book comes out on Wednesday, along with the producer price index and business inventories.
Jobless claims and the consumer price index await on Thursday. The week wraps up with international trade, industrial production and, importantly, consumer sentiment. Also, the key real estate market sector will look toward the NAHB housing index.
"There probably won't be anything to lead to an up, up and away kind of market, but once we get past Iraq, stocks may see a lift," Prudential's Piskorowski said. "Earnings pre-announcements were relatively benign. Companies are getting better at guiding down expectations."
Allen Wan is a news editor for CBS.MarketWatch.com in New York.
Blanco's dream
www.greenbaynewschron.com
By Joe Knaapen
For The News-Chronicle
The American Dream - a way of life based on individual freedom, religious faith and free enterprise - is alive and well ... in Venezuela.
The sounds of freedom resound throughout the South American country every night when average people protest against an ungodly government by banging pots and pans for hours into the night.
Sounds of freedom exploded more often as 2002 ticked into 2003 when a general strike shut down the economic system in Venezuela.
"Imagine a country that totally stopped working for a month," said Peter Blanco, an independent business owner from Venezuela. "I live in a country where you can't dream about owning a Jaguar or Mercedes. You need to put food on the table."
Speaking on leadership at a recent convention in Atlanta, Blanco described how last year's protest against the government of President Hugo Chavez led to the current protests to force the president out of office. A general strike in December cut oil production in the world's fourth-largest oil-producing country by 90 percent.
"Eighty-two percent of the people don't want the government" of Chavez because of its corruption and ties to Fidel Castro in Cuba and Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Blanco said. There are indications aspects of the political turmoil stem from international terrorists - possibly a tie to al-Qaida - and drug-running guerrillas on the border with Columbia, Blanco said.
"We have learned from history that Cuba does not have the solution," he said. More important for the audience of business leaders - including several from Door County - was Blanco's message for people in other parts of the world, especially the United States, to guard their freedom.
"Don't be complacent; don't give up your freedom. Your country needs to get stronger," Blanco said.
The alternative, he said, was for complacency to erode into tyranny with the loss of individual freedoms taken for granted in the United States.
"We had our freedom, but we got complacent. We lost it," Blanco said. "Now the whole country has regained its political interest. Imagine a peaceful march held by 2.5 million people."
A series of coups and coup attempts in the last decade upset the stability of the South American country that is home to about 25 million people.
Blanco said the United States should relearn from the situation in Venezuela about how precious are its freedoms and how delicate is the balance that prevents complacency from dismantling free institutions.
The United States remains unique in the world with its political and economic system based on the motto of "In God We Trust" and pledge to a flag that unites the nation "under God," Blanco said.
By contrast, he continued, political leaders in Venezuela have "never been godly," and until godly leaders step forward, the country will struggle with corruption. But, Blanco said, "don't feel bad for us; that is our battle."
When the conference ended, Blanco said he was "going home" to Venezuela and would be "in every march - pray for us."
Most of the details described by Blanco can be verified easily on Internet sites as diverse as the United State Central Intelligence Agency and the World Travel Guide.
But the personal message delivered by Blanco and his wife brought the threat of the political retaliation to a personal, immediate level. From television sets in the conference center, news broadcasts displayed protests in Venezuela even as Blanco was speaking.
Blanco learned the basic principles of being an American as a student at Charleston (S.C.) Southern University in the 1990s. His dream at the time was to play major league baseball. Blanco could bat well enough to earn letters all four years of college, but his arm strength wasn't what the pros wanted in a third baseman, so he ventured into the world of business.
Returning to Venezuela, Blanco began establishing his business and recruited the woman who became his wife. Marjorie Blanco knows the political situation from a different point of view: Her father was one of the few military officers who refused to go along with Chavez during an attempted coup in 1992 and his successful takeover in 1997. As a result, her father had to be secreted out of the country, and she is reluctant to discuss details about her family.
Despite the risks, Mrs. Blanco stood by her husband as he spoke out against the tyranny of the Venezuelan government.
"We'd be lying to our group if we just ran away," she said. "We went out in a peaceful protest a year ago, April 11, 2002, and got shot at by government troops."
Blanco said he wouldn't have known how much he and his countrymen had lost if he hadn't been exposed to principles of freedom while studying in the United States.
The key to those freedoms, Blanco reminded his audience, was leaders who linked their lives and decisions to God.
"We have to stop putting our trust in human beings and look to God," Blanco said.
Stuttering Start
Posted by click at 8:40 PM
in
brazil
Brazzil
Politics
February 2003
www.brazzil.com
All is not as rosy as financial markets would have us believe.
Congress practically will be in recess until after Carnaval
(March 1st to 4) and facing the reality of governing
may be postponed for a while.
Richard Hayes
Since Lula's colorful inauguration January 1st, statements by the incoming Finance Minister, Antônio Palocci and the new central bank president, Henrique Meirelles, have helped to strengthen the real and quotations for Brazilian assets. They repeated intentions to continue fiscal and monetary austerity and control inflation. Brazilian banks and blue chip companies are expected to raise nearly US 1 Billion in international credit markets this month, which has contributed to a semi euphoric reaction on the part of market players.
So far the government has not indicated that a bond issue is in the mill. But it would not surprise me if Meirelles, who must be sifting through offers of eager investment bankers seeking arrangement fees, takes advantage of this window of opportunity, which can slam shut again at the first sign of disillusion on the part of observers, most of whom still maintain an attitude of silent skepticism.
With congress in recess until mid February when they will meet to elect the presidents of the two houses before taking another break until after Carnaval, facing the reality of governing may be postponed for a while. Before Christmas, federal legislators voted themselves a 54 percent increase in salaries and other benefits. This has caused state and municipal representatives of the people to think about increases for themselves.
Now measures are proposed to allot more funds to the congressmen and senators to maintain their offices in their home states. Perhaps measures to give a raise to Lula and other members of the executive branch of government will be introduced. Lula now earns about 75 percent of what a congressman takes home. This foolishness will make it difficult for the government to resist the clamor for salary increases on the part of employees at all levels.
Not much notice was taken of the fact that the only two heads of state attending the swearing in ceremonies that actually met in private for meals with Lula were Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. Chavez seeks help from Petrobras to break the strike of Venezuela's government owned oil company that is crippling the country. Fidel has promised cooperation in Brazil's "social revolution" in the areas of public health and education where Cuba has done well by Latin American standards. I doubt if Lula, a union man, will allow Petrobras to act as a scab in Venezuela. There is a big difference between sending technical people to help out at PDVSA, something that Chavez would like, and selling them a tanker load of gasoline, which was done in December.
Lula has installed his ministers and heads of important secretariats and big government entities such as Petrobras, Caixa Econômica Federal, Banco do Brasil, BNDES etc. He created three new ministries and a few special commissions in order to accommodate people of his own PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores—Workers Party) and allies seeking employment. He also plans to resurrect SUDENE and SUDAM, two inefficient regional development agencies that were always riddled with corruption and favoritism in the past. FHC managed to scuttle these organs. Lula's perhaps well meaning efforts to help develop the backward northeast and Amazon regions may only result in more money thrown away in salaries of cohorts.
All for Hunger Fight
The festivities in Brasília on New Year's Day displayed a lack of decorum but the PT and Lula had their way. Lula, who likes rubbing shoulders with the people, has developed bursitis in his right shoulder. That plus concern on the part of his security forces may minimize these occurrences in the future. Lula's speech, only one of a series of long-winded orations, concentrated on his battle to eliminate hunger. No details as to how this worthy goal might be attained are yet available.
Lula made it public that the purchase of 12 new jet fighters to replace the aging Mirage fleet, will be postponed in order to use these funds to combat hunger. The foreign press picked this up saying that Lula is wisely trading guns for butter. Local commentaries have pointed out that the US$ 760,000,000 earmarked for the purchase of new planes is not in the budget and in fact does not exist.
The planes were to be financed by the yet to be chosen suppliers who would have to purchase an equal amount of Brazilian products to compensate. The Air Force was taken completely by surprise, but the new commander of the FAB (Força Aérea Brasileira), brigadeiro Luiz Carlos Bueno, stoically accepted the measure saying that it is up to the government to determine priorities. I think we have not heard the end of this first act of demagogy on Lula's part. He probably was not informed on the details of the planned purchase to replace the fleet based in Anápolis, state of Goiás, that must be retired in 2005.
During his campaign for election, Lula and the PT actively courted the military. This seems ironic since Lula and many of his "comrades," as he has instructed people in the government to call one another, were locked up for subversion and other charges during the 21 year period of military rule. His more moderate stance, staged by Duda Mendonça Lula's campaign manager, plus promises to pay more attention to the needs of the three arms, managed to gain tacit support from this important part of Brazilian society.
Army for All
Since the election and Lula's taking office, the minister of defense, José Viegas Filho, who was not a man that the military wanted in the post, along with other ministers has volunteered the use of the army and its bases for non military purposes. The minister of sports wants to use bases for sports activities. The man in charge of the Zero Hunger program has enlisted the help of the armed forces to distribute food. The minister of education wants their help to eradicate illiteracy. The justice minister wants them to assume the role of policing Brazil's borders currently performed as stipulated in the constitution by the federal police that falls under the jurisdiction of the ministry of justice.
Then there is the matter of road construction and maintenance of federal highways that the transport minister is requesting help from the military. It remains to be seen how all this will set with the military. Those on active duty cannot speak out, but through the retired and reserve officials, their discontent can be eventually felt. In my opinion, Lula would be wise to not neglect the armed forces whose budgets were drastically curtailed during the FHC years.
Lula has yet to confirm or negate the recent declaration of the minister of science and technology. In an interview with BBC, minister Roberto Amaral ambiguously stated that Brazil should be capable of making an atomic bomb. The International Agency for Atomic Energy that has its hands full with North Korea and Iraq at the moment was surprised. Foreign minister Celso Amorim is doing his best to clarify Amaral's stupid remarks. But in a matter of such gravity, it is up to the president to come out and deny such intentions and fire the incompetent minister who should have kept his mouth shut. Amaral is in the hospital being treated for pneumonia and could resign for health reasons saving Lula the trouble.
All is not as rosy as financial markets would have us believe. But Brazil is looking to Lula to bring about a better life for its citizens. It is too early to judge how this will all work out. We are in summer and many people are on vacation so things are still not running at capacity. The next two or three weeks will give us a better idea if Lula is up to the task that 62,000,000 Brazilians bestowed upon him.
Richard Edward Hayes, and his wife Jane, first came to Brazil in 1964 as an employee of Chase Manhattan Bank. During the past thirty-eight years, Hayes has worked directly and as an advisor for a number of Brazilian and international banks and companies. Currently he is a free lance consultant and can be contacted at 192louvre@uol.com.br
This article appeared previously at the Globond site - www.globond.com.br